In the aftermath of the 2024 election, Donald Trump’s victory marked a pivotal moment both nationally and statewide. In the Michigan Chamber’s State of Michigan Business: Economics and Elections event Nov. 7, experts analyzed the shifting economic and political landscape and shed light on the Great Lakes State’s crucial role this cycle.
Why it matters: As Trump prepares to take office, eyes will be on economic challenges like national debt, inflation and demographic shifts because these issues ended up having an outsized impact on voter preferences and turnout.
Key Takeaways
Economics researcher Dr. Tim Nash, senior vice president emeritus and director of the McNair Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Entrepreneurship at Northwood University, forecasted modest adjustments under the incoming presidential administration.
Global GDP and Michigan’s Place
The United States continues to be a powerhouse in the global economy:
- U.S. GDP represents 26.51% of the global economy ($29.17 trillion) while the country holds only 4.14% of the world’s population.
- Michigan’s GDP for 2024 stands at $703.3 billion, ranking it as the 14th largest state and comparable to the 22nd largest country by GDP.
Dr. Nash, senior vice president emeritus and director of the McNair Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Entrepreneurship at Northwood University, forecasted modest adjustments under Trump’s 2025 administration, minor adjustments in GDP and CPI could occur, with predictions of a 0.5% change at both national and state levels. While seemingly small, even minor economic shifts could significantly impact financial conditions.
The National Debt Challenge
One of the most significant economic concerns for Trump’s presidency will be managing the national debt:
- The national debt stands at $35.82 trillion, translating to $110,000 per capita.
- The burden per taxpayer is a staggering $271,880.
Dr. Nash emphasized that the scale of this debt constrains the U.S. economy’s flexibility, posing a critical test for Trump’s Administration as it will seek solutions in a divided Congress. Since Trump’s previous term, inflation has surged 20% higher, averaging 5.422% per year. Rising costs of living were pivotal in Trump’s election win, with consumers feeling the effects and voicing their desire for change.
Election Update and The Future of Michigan Politics
Our panel of political experts and pollsters discussed the new electorate. Mark Fisk, partner/CEO at Byrum Fisk, Adrian Hemond, CEO of Grassroots Midwest, Jenell Leonard, owner of Marketing Resource Group, and Peter Ruddell, partner at Honigman came together with a very similar message. Trump’s ability to “defy the laws of gravity in politics,” successfully appealing to nontraditional demographics and pulling in the middle-ground voters who secured his margin of error victory. Trump’s win in both the popular and electoral votes was unexpected, particularly with record-high voter turnout in Michigan.
Navigating a Split Electorate
Despite Trump’s win, Democrat Elissa Slotkin emerged victorious in Michigan. The pundits credited her nuanced campaign approach:
- Appealing to Moderates: According to the panel of experts, Slotkin positioned herself as a centrist who targeted middle-ground, working-class voters by focusing on practical issues. Her campaign emphasized independence and nonpartisanship, appealing to voters who wanted pragmatic solutions over far-sided ideals.
- Key Issues: Slotkin’s message included a strong stance on reproductive freedom, but most importantly, attention to economic and immigration concerns — the most critical topics for 2025 Michigan voters.
Michigan’s 2024 Lame Duck Session and Beyond: Navigating a Divided Government
With an incoming Republican House and Democratic Senate and governorship in Michigan, the coming months during Lame Duck could be tense.
- Business Community in the Crossfire: This “game of chicken” during the lame duck session could place Michigan’s business community in a challenging position as key issues like Paid Sick Leave and Minimum Wage hang in the balance.
- Strategic Prioritization: Our experts advised House Republicans to establish a clear agenda early and maximize the momentum they are feeling coming out of an enormous red wave.
Ultimately Lame Duck is a litmus test for future bipartisanship. How well the two parties work together on pressing issues could indicate their ability to tackle more complex challenges in the future.
As the future of business in Michigan continues to evolve, the Michigan Chamber is on the job for Michigan businesses as they navigate the upcoming pressures of Earned Sick Time and Minimum Wage changes Feb. 21, 2025. For more information and support on this issue, visit our webpage.
Event Recording
In case you missed it, or want to revisit, catch the event recording below. You can find more MI Chamber programming on our YouTube page.