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Small business confidence is sliding, according to U.S. Chamber study

Advocacy News – April 17, 2026 

What’s new: The U.S. Chamber’s Q1 2026 Small Business Index fell last quarter and well off its recent high of 72 in Q3 2025, marking a second straight quarterly decline.

Why it matters: Small businesses are the backbone of the U.S. economy, and their growing pessimism is an early warning sign that broader economic momentum could stall.

By the numbers:

  • 53% cite inflation as their top challenge, up from 45% last quarter and the 17th consecutive quarter it’s ranked #1.
  • Only 28% say the national economy is in good health, a 10-point drop.
  • Just 30% plan to increase staff, down 12 points from Q4 2025.
  • 37% expect to boost investment, down from 44%.

The catch: Despite the gloom about the macro picture, 69% of small business owners still say their own business is in good health, a striking disconnect between how they feel about Main Street vs. the national economy.

The backdrop: The survey was conducted Feb. 25–March 11, largely after the outbreak of military conflict with Iran, adding a layer of geopolitical uncertainty on top of persistent inflation and affordability pressures.

The bottom line: Small businesses aren’t in crisis, but they’re clearly shifting into defensive mode. If hiring and investment plans keep retreating, the broader economy will feel it.

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