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Anderson Economic Group on the 2025 government shutdown

Advocacy News – Nov. 19, 2025 

The 43-day 2025 federal government shutdown, which ended last week, hit Americans harder than it did in 2018–19 episode, according to an analysis by Michigan Chamber member, Anderson Economic Group (AEG). Early private-sector data shows “[t]his shutdown was longer, affected more people, held back more paychecks, and disrupted more businesses and travelers than before,” according to Patrick Anderson, the firm’s principal and CEO.

Why it matters: While the full economic picture won’t be clear until official government data arrives, early indicators unveiled by AEG suggest the 2025 shutdown left a deeper dent in confidence, consumption and commerce. Initial takeaways:

  • Beer sales plunge: Down 6% in October, an uncommon drop. “When beer drops, you know something’s wrong,” said Anderson.
  • Auto market stalls: Overall sales fell 4%; electric vehicle sales cratered after a tax credit expired in September.
  • Consumers gloomy: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slid from 71 last year to 50.3 in early November — near record lows.
  • Flights grounded: FAA-related cancellations worsened travel chaos, hitting families and the hospitality sector.
  • Taxpayers lose twice: AEG says shutdowns cost more — workers get paid later, but services stop.
  • Contractors squeezed: Many went unpaid, unlike federal employees who’ll receive back pay.
  • Worse than 2019: Past shutdown effects were “muted”; this one disrupted more sectors and delayed more paychecks.

Go deeper: Read AEG’s full analysis.